RETHINKING TRANSPORTATION TARGETS – A CASE FOR MOVING BEYOND BASIC MODAL SHARE TARGETS

Most Transportation Master Plans for major urban areas in Canada establish targets for transportation demand management. Typically these targets focus on transit modal shares or transit use; however, approaches for developing the actual targets vary considerably. Some municipalities “back-calculate” required mode split targets by examining future peak hour road capacity deficiencies on a screenline basis. Other areas adopt a broader approach and simply assume that if rapidly growing auto use is bad, than more transit use must be good, and consequently set very high goals for transit mode shares. While there appears to be little consistency in approaches for setting transportation demand targets, there is some consistency in the fact that modal share targets are generally not being achieved. At best, most urban transit systems struggle to maintain existing mode shares, let alone increase their mode shares. Perhaps more alarming is the fact that auto use continues to grow at a staggering rate. The most recent Transportation Association of Canada (TAC) Urban Indicators Survey [1] revealed that gasoline fuel use per capita, a measure of auto dependency, grew by more than 11% between 1991 and 2001. This paper will present a critical review of how and why traditional transportation mode share targets are failing to result in more sustainable transportation, as measured by reduced growth in auto usage and increased transit use. A proposed approach is outlined for establishing and achieving urban transportation targets, including a framework that bases transportation targets on auto use as well as transit mode shares. It is argued that this fundamental target better reflects the objectives that most municipalities are trying to achieve when they are setting targets. It is also expected that this approach will assist municipalities in establishing transportation policies and plans that help achieve federal commitments for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, address a growing link between auto dependency and health problems, and prepare for a possible future wherein the availability of energy supply may not sustain current auto behaviour. Key Words: transportation targets, mode split targets, transportation planning, sustainable transportation