This document develops a method to enable the selection of asphalt binders that resist thermal cracking in very cold winter climates. An algorithm is developed which estimates design temperatures for a pavement test site from the local winter temperature history. This equation includes a factor for the desired reliability, and can be used with the SUPERPAVE paving mix design system.
http://tac-atc.ca/sites/tac-atc.ca/files/site/determining_winter.pdf
See also: Determining the winter design temperature - Supplement for air and pavement temperature data