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Sketch Model for Estimating Station Level Ridership for LRT


The City of Edmonton aims to undertake an evidence-based approach to prioritize its 2047 unfunded
LRT network for implementation. The Regional Travel Model (RTM) developed by the City does not
explicitly model LRT as a separate mode and in general, like other regional-scaled models, is limited in its ability to accurately reflect station-level patterns. On the other hand, a Direct Ridership Model (DRM) estimates ridership as a function of the station’s environment and transit service attributes. A DRM can be used as complementary to the traditional four-step models like the RTM to provide a better understanding at a local level, which a system-wide analysis cannot provide. It also provides significantly greater flexibility than a RTM for evaluating different land use and service scenarios, and with minimal calibration, is transferable to other major urban areas. In this study, we developed a DRM of LRT stations using data collected for 15 existing stations in the City of Edmonton straddling over two horizon years. Individual DRMs were developed for the a.m. and p.m. peak periods after an assessment of the available data. The results indicate that population, employment, and post-secondary enrollment within a 1000m buffer around each station; along with, bus frequency, distance to CBD, parking spaces, and CBD stations were statistically significant variables. Five methods to expand the peak period station level boarding to daily estimates were also developed to understand the potential range of daily forecasts the City could expect to experience in the future.

Conference Paper Details

Session title:
Duggal, M.
Radakovic, N.
Bhowmick, A.
Datla, S.
Transportation planning