Knowledge CentreTechnical Resources SearchConference PapersA Demand Forecasting Methodology for Land-Based Ports of Entry

A Demand Forecasting Methodology for Land-Based Ports of Entry


Transportation infrastructure is essential for economic development and typically dependent on significant public sector investment. However, fiscal limitations impact the capacity of governments to fund these investments. These countervailing forces necessitate a policy-level approach to better justify and secure resources for key transportation infrastructure investments. In a 2012 study of the Pembina-Emerson port of entry (POE), two planning methodologies were modified to better assess policy-level considerations related to POE transportation infrastructure. This paper addresses demand forecasting methodologies and is a precursor to the level of service (LOS) framework paper presented in these TAC sessions. Average annual daily traffic projections (AADT and AADTT) are insufficient for determining peaking patterns and assessing future infrastructure requirements at POE’s. A new approach for forecasting vehicle demand at POE’s was required to more effectively assess demand-capacity issues. Using historical arrival data, custom expansion factors were developed for forecast algorithms that replicated POE peaking characteristics and converted annual forecasts for vehicle categories to meaningful hourly arrival rates. These hourly forecast values were critical to run traffic simulation models and test the 30th highest hour design as well as populating the LOS framework that provides sensitivity analysis for assessing various infrastructure, phasing and service level scenarios. 

Conference Paper Details

Session title:
Dr. J.M. Kosior
D. E. Lettner
Transportation planning