360 degree analysis of the potential for zero-emission vehicles

This report analyses the potential and the prerequisites for reaching the National Transport Plans targets of only selling zero-emission passenger cars, small light commercial vehicles (Vans) and city buses in 2025, large vans in 2030 and that 50% of new trucks and 75% of new long distance buses shall be zero-emission by 2030. The passenger car target for 2025 is demanding due to the wide variation in user needs and preferences. Strong measures will be required to meet the goal. The goals for city buses and small lightcommercial vehicles can potentially be attainable with the right policy instruments. The technology development  seems to converge with user needs the coming years. Also the 2030 heavy light commercial vehicle target seems within reach as this segment lags the small light commercial vehicle development by about 5 years. The 2030 truck and bus targets are much more uncertain as no commercial offerings are in place for these demanding sectors. Hydrogen may play a key role for long distance heavy duty applications. The summary report is available in English at https://www.toi.no/getfile.php/1352308/Publikasjoner/T%C3%98I%20rapporter/2019/1744-2019/1744-2019_Summary.pdf